For years, San Francisco's plans to build a 1.7-mile subway from South of Market to Chinatown have glided forward with an air of inevitability, even as the route changed, cost projections soared, ridership estimates shrank and the dream of eventually extending the line to Fisherman's Wharf evaporated into pure fantasy.
The question that just about anyone in power in San Francisco prefers to avoid - is this still a good idea? - is about to become a prominent issue in the mayor's race.
Until now, only candidate Tony Hall, a former supervisor who has remained on the margins as the field of 11's Last Angry Man, has spoken out forcefully against the Central Subway.
The dynamics of the issue - and perhaps the mayor's race - change dramatically with City Attorney Dennis Herrera's conclusion that a recent civil grand jury report is right: The city needs to hit the pause button on a project that could rival Boston's "Big Dig" as an example of government waste.
Herrera's criticisms are significant in that he, as most of the city's establishment, has supported the project as it moved through the planning and design process for the past eight years.
"The plan that is on the boards now ... has ceased to be a prudent investment," mayoral candidate Herrera said in an interview Thursday. He planned to punctuate his opposition in a news release this week.
What changed his mind? Herrera cited the grand jury's report of the escalating cost - from $650 million in 2003 to $1.6 billion today - and the prospect that the city would be on the hook for any further cost overruns. He said the promise of a subway that would blend seamlessly with Muni and BART has been altered, partly due to engineering complications, into what the grand jury noted was an alignment that would serve Chinatown but leave passengers three football fields away from connections to transit on Market Street. He also noted that operation and maintenance of the 1.7-mile subway is projected to cost cash-strapped Muni $15 million a year.
Another top-tier candidate for mayor, Public Defender Jeff Adachi, last week expressed skepticism about the subway plan in the wake of the grand jury report.
"It seems like knowing what we know now ... this would be a bad deal for the city," Adachi said, suggesting the grand jury has raised "enough flags" to merit city hearings before asking for a federal funding commitment.
Actually, if the Central Subway becomes a major issue in the mayor's race - as Herrera's and Adachi's comments suggest it will - this train still could be stopped in its tracks. While San Francisco has spent about $180 million in planning and design - and is currently relocating utility lines at Union Square in anticipation of the tunnels - this project is not happening without the federal government's agreement to cover its share of nearly $1 billion. The city is scheduled to submit its application for a full-funding agreement from the Federal Transportation Administration this month, which would be followed by 60 days of congressional review.
The election of a mayor who campaigned against the Central Subway would almost certainly give Congress, especially the Republican-controlled House, all the reason it needed to halt federal support.
Ed Reiskin, the city's new transportation chief, suggested it would be a huge mistake to retreat from "an investment for the generations" when San Francisco was on the brink of securing federal funds for the bulk of construction costs. He expressed confidence that the $1.6 billion price tag was conservative, with little or no chance that the city would be socked with overrun costs.
"We have to build the capacity for the future," Reiskin said. "If downtown San Francisco becomes pure gridlock, then San Francisco doesn't work."
While Herrera maintained that his concerns were substantive - about leadership and sound public policy - the politics of the issue also offer delicious opportunity to draw votes from the left and right. A vigorous debate about the Central Subway inevitably would lead to a focus on interim Mayor Ed Lee's relationship with ex-Mayor Willie Brown and Chinatown powerbroker Rose Pak, two chief proponents of the project, and their allies who have enjoyed a slice of the contracts to date. It also would put Lee in the position of defending a potential boondoggle, undercutting his attempt to portray himself as a fiscal hawk. An added bonus to Herrera: It casts one clear policy distinction from state Sen. Leland Yee, a rival for the progressive voter bloc.
With Herrera and Adachi stepping forward in opposition, the Central Subway could become a defining issue in a campaign of 11 serious contenders that, to date, has mostly rested on platitudes and "me toos."
This is a civic debate that is overdue and necessary.
Central Subway: Visionary investment or big boondoggle?
Estimated
construction cost:
-- 2003: $650 million
-- Today: $1.6 billion
Who pays?
-- Federal government: $983 million
-- State government: $471 million
-- City: $123 million*
Length
-- 1.7 miles
Projected completion
-- 2019
*City is responsible for any cost overruns.
John Diaz is The Chronicle's editorial page editor. E-mail: jdiaz@sfchronicle.com. Follow him on Twitter: @johndiazchron.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/09/02/INLN1KU8H8.DTL#ixzz1XKUVqCrb
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